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Apple Inc. (AAPL) Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Apple delivered a September-quarter record: revenue $102.47B (+8% Y/Y) and diluted EPS $1.85 (up 13% Y/Y on an adjusted basis), driven by record iPhone and record Services revenue, and stronger company gross margin of 47.2% .
  • Broad-based strength: iPhone $49.03B (+6% Y/Y), Mac $8.73B (+13% Y/Y), Services $28.75B (+15% Y/Y), while iPad and Wearables were roughly flat; company set regional records in the Americas, Europe, Japan, and Rest of Asia Pacific; Greater China declined 4% Y/Y due to iPhone supply constraints in the quarter .
  • Outlook (December quarter): total revenue expected to grow 10–12% Y/Y, iPhone to grow double-digits (best iPhone quarter ever), gross margin guided to 47–48%, OpEx $18.1–$18.5B, OI&E ≈$150M, tax ~17%; guidance includes ~$1.4B tariff costs; Services growth to be similar to FY25 pace .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus*, Apple posted a clean beat: revenue $102.47B vs $102.25B*, EPS $1.85 vs $1.77*, and gross margin 47.18% vs 46.47%*; upside was driven by favorable mix, Services strength, and strong early iPhone 17 demand despite supply constraints .
  • Strategic narrative: management emphasized Apple Intelligence and Private Cloud Compute investments (including new server manufacturing in Houston) and expects continued elevated AI-related OpEx and CapEx, while maintaining a hybrid first/third-party data center strategy .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record Services and iPhone: Services revenue hit an all‑time high of $28.8B (+15% Y/Y) with broad-based category and geographic strength; iPhone set a September-quarter record at $49B (+6% Y/Y) with a September record for upgraders .
  • Margin execution: Company gross margin was 47.2%, above the high end of guidance, driven by favorable mix even with ~$1.1B tariff costs; product GM was 36.2%, services GM 75.3% .
  • Confidence and product cycle: CEO highlighted “our best iPhone lineup ever” (iPhone 17 family) and record fiscal-year revenue of $416B; heading into holiday, Apple expects the “best ever” December for the company and for iPhone .

Selected quotes:

  • “September quarter revenue record of $102.5 billion… and an all‑time revenue record for Services.” – Tim Cook
  • “Gross margin was 47.2%, above the high end of our guidance range… driven by favorable mix.” – CFO

What Went Wrong

  • Greater China softness: Greater China revenue declined 4% Y/Y, largely from iPhone; management cited supply constraints on iPhone 16 and 17 models as the primary driver; expects return to growth in December quarter .
  • Product category plateau in Wearables/iPad: Wearables, Home & Accessories ($9.0B) and iPad ($7.0B) were roughly flat Y/Y, facing tough comps and product timing .
  • Ongoing tariff headwinds: ~$1.1B September-quarter tariff costs and ~$1.4B embedded in December guidance; while China cut certain tariff rates from 20% to 10%, tariffs remain a material cost factor .

Financial Results

Headline P&L vs Prior Periods

MetricQ4 2024Q3 2025Q4 2025
Revenue ($B)$94.93 $94.04 $102.47
Diluted EPS ($)$0.97 $1.57 $1.85
Operating Income ($B)$29.59 $28.20 $32.43
Net Income ($B)$14.74 $23.43 $27.47
Company Gross Margin (%)~46.2% (calc from $43.88B/$94.93B) 46.5% 47.2%

Note: Q4 2024 EPS was depressed by a one‑time $10.2B net tax charge related to EU State Aid decision; management references adjusted Y/Y comparisons for EPS growth .

Actual vs S&P Global Consensus* (Q4 2025)

MetricConsensusActualDelta
Revenue ($B)$102.25*$102.47 +$0.22
Diluted EPS ($)$1.77*$1.85 +$0.08
Gross Margin (%)46.47%*47.18% +0.71 pp

Values with asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Revenue by Category (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024)

Category ($B)Q4 2024Q4 2025Y/Y %
iPhone$46.22 $49.03 +6.1%
Mac$7.74 $8.73 +12.7%
iPad$6.95 $6.95 ~0%
Wearables, Home & Accessories$9.04 $9.01 ~0%
Services$24.97 $28.75 +15.1%

Management color: iPhone +6% Y/Y; Mac +13% Y/Y; Services +15% Y/Y; iPad and Wearables roughly flat .

Revenue by Geography (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024)

Geography ($B)Q4 2024Q4 2025Y/Y %
Americas$41.66 $44.19 +6.1%
Europe$24.92 $28.70 +15.2%
Greater China$15.03 $14.49 -3.6% (≈-4% per management)
Japan$5.93 $6.64 +12.0%
Rest of Asia Pacific$7.38 $8.44 +14.4%

Additional KPIs and Cash/Returns (Q4 2025)

KPIQ4 2025
Products GM (%)36.2%
Services GM (%)75.3%
Operating Cash Flow ($B)$29.7 (September record)
Tariff Costs Included~$1.1B
Cash & Marketable Securities ($B)$132
Total Debt ($B)$99
Net Cash ($B)$34
Share Repurchases ($B)$20 (89M shares)
Dividends & Equivalents ($B)$3.9
Dividend Declared$0.26/share, payable Nov 13, 2025 (record Nov 10)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Revenue (Y/Y)Q1 FY26 (Dec qtr)n/a+10% to +12% New
iPhone RevenueQ1 FY26n/aDouble-digit Y/Y growth (best iPhone quarter ever) New
Services Revenue GrowthQ1 FY26n/aSimilar to FY25 growth rate (+14% in FY25) New
Gross MarginQ1 FY26n/a47%–48% New
OpEx ($B)Q1 FY26n/a$18.1–$18.5 New
OI&E ($M)Q1 FY26n/a≈$150 New
Tax RateQ1 FY26n/a~17% New
Tariff Costs (included)Q1 FY26n/a≈$1.4B New
DividendNext payablen/a$0.26/share on 11/13/25 New
Gross MarginQ4 FY25 (Sep qtr)46%–47% Actual 47.2% Above high end
OpEx ($B)Q4 FY25$15.6–$15.8 Actual $15.9 Slightly above
Total Revenue (Y/Y)Q4 FY25Mid-to-high single digits Actual +8% In line

Notes: Management highlighted lower China tariff rates (20%→10%) in certain cases now factored into December outlook .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 FY25 MentionsQ3 FY25 MentionsQ4 FY25 (Current)Trend
AI/Apple Intelligence, SiriAnnounced Apple Intelligence across platforms; more personal Siri delayed to meet quality bar; significant AI investment; hybrid data center strategy Continued AI momentum; increased CapEx for AI; tariffs color; reiterated hybrid model New M5 silicon powering AI; PCC servers ramping in Houston; continued elevated AI OpEx; hybrid capacity to persist Increasing investment and deployment
Supply Chain & TariffsJune qtr tariff cost estimate ~$900M; majority of US iPhones sourced from India; Macs/iPads/Watch from Vietnam; China remains key for RoW Actual tariff cost ~$800M; Sep qtr est ~$1.1B; caution on extrapolation Sep qtr included ~$1.1B; Dec guided ~$1.4B; China tariffs reduced to 10% in certain cases Headwind persists but managed; policy easing helps at the margin
iPhone Cycle & MixiPhone 16e launch; upgrade records; AI features supportive iPhone +13% Y/Y; record upgraders; strong in EM iPhone +6% Y/Y; record Sept upgraders; early iPhone 17 demand strong; supply constraints on several models Strong demand; near-term supply constrained
Services MomentumAll-time record; +12% Y/Y; App Store strong despite regulatory changes All-time record; +13% Y/Y; sequential acceleration; >$100B run-rate building All-time record; +15% Y/Y; records across categories; organic growth, not tax/one-offs Accelerating growth and breadth
Greater ChinaDown 2% Y/Y; roughly flat ex-FX; subsidies supportive Up 4% Y/Y in June; positive momentum Down 4% Y/Y in September; supply constraints cited; expect return to growth in December Volatile but improving outlook
Health/WatchHearing health features highlighted Watch upgraders record New health features (hypertension notifications, SleepScore) in Watch lineup Expanding health stack

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and Product Strength: “We’re heading into the holiday season with a truly remarkable lineup… our best iPhone lineup ever… and an all‑time revenue record for Services” – Tim Cook .
  • Margins and Costs: “Company gross margin was 47.2%, above the high end of our guidance… This includes approximately $1.1B of tariff related costs” – CFO .
  • Guidance Tone: “We expect our December total company revenue to grow by 10% to 12% Y/Y… iPhone revenue to grow double digits… gross margin 47–48%… OpEx $18.1–$18.5B” – CFO .
  • AI Investments: “We are significantly increasing our investments in AI… we built Private Cloud Compute… servers manufactured in Houston ramping now” – Management .

Q&A Highlights

  • iPhone demand and constraints: Strong early iPhone 17 demand with constraints on several models; management not forecasting balance timing but working to fulfill orders .
  • China dynamics: September softness (-4% Y/Y) driven by iPhone supply constraints; store traffic up and subsidies supportive; management expects return to growth in December .
  • Services durability: Mid-teens growth broad-based and organic (no tax effects); advertising category (1P+3P combined) set a record, while management declined to break out search specifically .
  • Margins and tariffs: December GM guided up (47–48%) on favorable mix despite ~$1.4B tariffs; China tariff rates reduced in certain cases (20%→10%) temper cost drag .
  • OpEx/AI: Step-up in OpEx driven by R&D for AI; management maintains hybrid data center approach and continues to pursue selective M&A to accelerate the roadmap .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2025 beats vs S&P Global consensus*: revenue $102.47B vs $102.25B*, EPS $1.85 vs $1.77*, gross margin 47.18% vs 46.47%* .
  • Implications: Better-than-expected margin execution (mix) and Services outperformance likely drive upward revisions to EPS and GM trajectory; December revenue growth color (10–12%) and iPhone double-digit guide may lift near-term Street forecasts for Q1 seasonality .

Values with asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Clean beat and constructive guide: Q4 outperformed on revenue, EPS, and GM; December guide (10–12% Y/Y) and iPhone double-digit growth set up a strong holiday quarter and near-term positive estimate revisions .
  • Mix and Services driving margins: Upside GM came from favorable mix; Services strength (75%+ margin) remains a structural tailwind to profitability and cash generation .
  • Near-term watch item: iPhone 17 supply constraints persist; faster supply normalization is a catalyst for December upside; management not yet timing the balance .
  • China: September weakness tied to supply constraints rather than demand; management expects a return to growth in December; tariff rate relief in China helps cost profile at the margin .
  • AI investment ramp: Expect elevated OpEx (and CapEx) as Apple scales Apple Intelligence and Private Cloud Compute; hybrid model helps manage capacity and spend .
  • Capital returns intact: $24B returned in Q4 ($20B buybacks, $3.9B dividends) with $0.26/share dividend declared; net cash position $34B provides continued flexibility .
  • Trading setup: Positive narrative into holiday on iPhone strength, Services momentum, and improving GM; monitor updates on supply constraints, China demand follow-through, and AI feature rollouts for catalysts .

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